Guerrilla marketing research in plain terms: what Canadian

Updated November 2026

No primary study we could open supports the 75% to 90% recall rates repeated about guerrilla marketing. A 2024 survey of 401 people is more useful: it shows that surprise, innovation, emotional arousal and clarity relate to purchase intention, while humour, aesthetics and relevance did not.

Why a Canadian organiser should be wary of borrowed percentages

A festival committee in Québec, a junior hockey club in Alberta or a retailer preparing a holiday weekend all face the same temptation: quote a large recall percentage to justify a street action. The numbers in circulation, 75%, 84%, 86% or 90%, are given without a link to any survey. We looked for the origin and found none, so this page does not reuse them. The text is written in English, and the reasoning applies equally to French-language campaigns in Québec, New Brunswick or Manitoba.

What remains is a smaller body of academic work, listed below with year, sample and limits.

Purple penguin costumed mascot popping out of a snow sculpture at a Canadian winter festival (illustration)
Illustration created with AI

The most detailed survey: 401 participants in Türkiye

The journal of Erciyes University published a study in 2024 by Akgün, Demir and Çini. It surveyed 401 participants and tested several features of guerrilla actions against purchase intention. According to the page we opened, innovation, surprise, emotional arousal and clarity had significant positive effects. Relevance, aesthetics and humour did not.

For an events team, this suggests spending the planning hours on a message that is quick to understand and a moment that feels new, rather than on polish or a joke that may not travel. It is the kind of finding that is easy to test: two versions of a stunt at two weekends, same measure.

The limits are plain. The respondents were in Türkiye, the outcome is stated intention, and our access was to the abstract and not the full tables.

Smaller studies that point the same way

Interviews in Malta, a questionnaire in Türkiye

A 2014 master's thesis from the University of Malta used fifteen in-depth interviews. People described guerrilla ads as creative, different and surprising and said they stirred curiosity, yet the ads did not necessarily lead to purchase. A 2017 thesis at Süleyman Demirel University found that most participants knew the idea, judged its effect on buying decisions to be limited, and called the practice exaggerated. The repository page does not state how many people answered.

Not a tool of small firms alone

The common assumption that small businesses are the natural users is tested by Yüksekbilgili (2014), who looked at one hundred small and medium firms in Istanbul. Most had never used guerrilla methods and were not planning to. The author recommends repeating the survey beyond one city. Seasonal Canadian businesses, such as garden centres, ski resorts or summer attractions, should read this as a reminder that popularity of an idea is not proof of results.

The definition problem

A review by Lennart Wendland (2016) calls guerrilla marketing a cloudy concept that lacks a stable definition, and proposes a model that adds two mediators describing how the recipient behaves. For an organiser, the message is that studies on a flash mob, a sticker campaign and a costumed character may be measuring different things under one label. Compare like with like.

The practitioner site Ignition proposes at least 50% recall as a target. We could not open the page itself and saw its text through search results. It cites no study, and we treat it as an internal goal that you would need to measure on your own audience.

A simple test plan for one season

Evidence from elsewhere is a starting point, and an organiser can build their own with modest effort. Take a recurring event, a spring fair, a summer tournament or a holiday market, and run two versions of the same activation on comparable days. In one, add a visible, surprising element with a clear message. In the other, keep the usual set-up.

Count the same thing on both days: stall visits, sign-ups, vouchers redeemed. Write down the weather, the crowd and the language of the signage. After the season, you hold a small dataset that reflects your region, which no international percentage can offer. Repeat it the next year to see whether the effect lasts once the surprise has worn off, a point the sources above do not settle.

Limits and method

We opened each page cited and kept only statements found there. The evidence is thin: two student-level theses, one multi-factor survey, one review, one small survey of firms. None was conducted in Canada. Intentions and attitudes are not sales. A winter carnival in Québec City and a summer fair in Saskatoon differ in crowd, weather and language, and a result measured elsewhere cannot be assumed for either.

The studies do not show that an action raises revenue, attendance or sign-ups. They show where to look.

What this means for Canadian events, teams and businesses seeking a mascot

Seasons shape the plan. A mascot at a tailgate in September, a winter market, a spring fundraising run or a summer terrace each meets a different crowd, and clothing, heat and cold limit how long the person in costume can work. Plan shorter shifts in hot weather and indoor warm-up space in January.

Because audiences are bilingual in many regions, a character can carry a message without words: a gesture, a sign, a colour. Prepare signage in both official languages where relevant, and keep the line short, in keeping with the finding on clarity.

  • Decide one result to measure per event: sign-ups, ticket scans, stall visits.
  • Compare against the same event last season.
  • Record temperature and attendance beside the result.

A team or company that does this for two or three events will have local evidence worth more than any figure found online.

Sources

Frequently asked questions

Is there a recall rate I can quote for guerrilla marketing?

No. The 75% to 90% figures lack a traceable study. Measure recall with your own audience.

Which elements of a stunt seem to matter for purchase intention?

In a 2024 survey of 401 participants, innovation, surprise, emotional arousal and clarity had significant positive effects. Relevance, aesthetics and humour did not.

Were these studies done in Canada?

No. They come from Türkiye and Malta, so local testing is needed.

Do small businesses use guerrilla marketing most?

In a 2014 survey of one hundred Istanbul small firms, most had never used it.

How should a seasonal event measure results?

Choose one measure, compare with the same event the previous season, and log weather and attendance.

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